The Blu-ray Disc Association has been publicizing their new 4K Blu-ray standard. We’ve been in the optical disc market a long time. Here’s what we think will happen with 4K Blu-ray.
For each phase of optical disc technology, we’ve seen a different adoption curve and product life cycle for players:
- DVD was introduced in 1997. Sales slowly grew to a peak and are now declining.
- Blu-ray was introduced in 2006. The sales curve was shorter, with Blu-ray being adopted and peaking more quickly.
We expect to see an even shorter product life cycle for 4K Blu-ray, but even more accelerated. If 4K Blu-ray ships in 2015, we project rapid growth, as it will be the only way to get a wide variety of high-quality UHD content. Bandwidth limitations won’t allow streaming of such high-quality content yet; Netflix’s 4K option will not look nearly as good as 4K Blu-ray (which boasts HRD, wide color gamut, and other up and coming HD technologies). 4K Blu-ray is going to have a quick growth, peak and then decline rapidly as streaming technologies improve and retail players become a commodity before the “next big thing” (whatever it is) makes an appearance.
What does this quick bump mean for our industries? Essentially, it means that anyone creating AV products will need to prepare. It’ll be easy to get left behind on 4K Blu-ray–and being left behind during this window is just as bad as being left out. Blu-ray is going to continue to be a required feature in IFE and IVI systems, and its longevity is being fueled by the introduction of this latest set of technology improvements.
Comment to let us know what you think, or send us an email if you are planning 4K Blu-ray in your next product. We will be in Orlando next week at NBAA.